Fewer Claims, More Complexity: What 2025 SCRS and Industry Data Signal for Canadian Shops in 2026

Key findings

1. 1Repairable appraisal counts in North America declined year over year through 2025, while total loss frequency continued to climb past 27 percent on later-model vehicles (CCC Crash Course, Mitchell Industry Trends).
2. 2Calibration-related line items now appear on roughly 36 to 40 percent of estimates involving 2020-and-newer vehicles, up from under 20 percent in 2022 (CCC, Mitchell Q4 2025).
3. 3Average repairable severity in Canada has outpaced general inflation since 2022, driven by parts mix, scanning, calibration, and structural aluminum repair (Statistics Canada CPI vehicle parts index; IBC).
4. 4SCRS Blend Study findings continue to show blend operations require similar or greater labour than full panel refinish, with implications for both Canadian DRP price agreements and MPI/SGI rate negotiations.
5. 5Shops that cannot document OEM procedure adherence and calibration triggers at write-up are absorbing supplement friction and DRP scorecard penalties that compound through 2026.

Body

1. What the 2025 SCRS and industry data actually says

The convergence of SCRS, CCC, and Mitchell data through 2025 describes a smaller, more complex collision repair market - not a shrinking one. Repairable claim counts are down, but each remaining claim carries higher severity, more calibration content, more OEM procedure references, and a greater probability of being declared a total loss. SCRS has used its monthly Repairer Roundtable and the published Blend Study to underscore that the labour content per repair is rising in ways that legacy estimating times do not capture.

For Canadian shops, this matters because MPI, SGI, ICBC and private DRP rate frameworks were largely built around a higher-volume, lower-complexity claim mix. The 2026 reality is fewer cars in the lot, but each one demanding more documentation, more calibration coordination, and more supplement discipline than the rate sheet assumes.

2. How claim volume and total loss frequency are moving

Repairable claim frequency in North America has been declining since 2022, with a more pronounced drop visible in late 2024 and through 2025. CCC's Crash Course reporting and Mitchell's Industry Trends quarterly data both point to total loss frequency rising as average vehicle age, parts cost, and pre-accident value pressures push more claims past the salvage threshold. Auto Body News summarized the 2025 data as a structural shift, not a temporary dip.

For Canadian operators, the directional pattern holds even though the absolute Canadian figures differ. IBC and Statistics Canada data show vehicle parts and repair CPI indices outpacing general inflation since 2022, and MPI and SGI both publish severity trends that confirm the same upward curve. The practical effect on a Manitoba or Saskatchewan shop is straightforward: a smaller funnel of repairable vehicles, each requiring more rigour at write-up.

3. What the calibration data means for the write-up

Calibration is now a write-up decision, not a back-end discovery. With more than a third of estimates on late-model vehicles carrying calibration line items, the cost of missing a calibration trigger at the estimate stage compounds across cycle time, supplement frequency, and DRP scorecard exposure. I-CAR RTS and OEM position statements remain the source of truth on which operations trigger which calibrations; the data simply confirms how frequently those triggers are being hit.

The SCRS guidance is consistent: shops must reference the OEM position statement and procedure per VIN. A 2022 calibration list for a model line will not match the 2025 model year of the same nameplate. Generic shop checklists are no longer defensible documentation under MPI's Light Vehicle Accreditation Agreement (LVAA) or under most private carrier DRP audit frameworks.

4. Severity, parts mix, and the Canadian inflation picture

Severity is rising faster than headline CPI in both Canada and the United States. Statistics Canada's vehicle parts, maintenance and repairs index (Table 18-10-0004-01) has consistently posted higher year-over-year increases than the all-items CPI since 2022. The drivers are familiar: more aluminum and mixed-substrate structures, more sensors, more single-use fasteners, more OEM-only parts, and longer scan and calibration routines.

For Canadian shops, the implication is that the gap between estimating system pre-fill values and actual repair cost is widening. Mitchell Connect and CCC ONE both rely on the estimator to surface non-included operations, calibration line items, and OEM procedure references. When those are missed at write-up, the supplement carries them - and supplement-heavy claims are exactly the claims that consume cycle time and trigger DRP penalties.

5. The SCRS Blend Study and what it means for Canadian rate conversations

The SCRS Blend Study, referenced widely through 2024 and 2025 by SCRS, ASA, and the ARA in British Columbia, demonstrated that blending refinish work into adjacent panels requires labour time comparable to or greater than the time required for full panel refinish. The legacy estimating database convention of paying blend at 50 percent of full refinish was built on assumptions the data no longer supports.

For Canadian shops, the Blend Study is a data anchor for rate and procedure discussions with MPI, SGI, ICBC, and private DRPs. It does not change a program's published rate unilaterally, but it does establish that blend is a not-included operation requiring documentation and, on procedure-based programs, an itemized line. Shops that document blend operations against the SCRS findings position themselves correctly when the next program review cycle opens.

6. Where Canadian shops typically lose ground on the 2026 data

The most consistent gaps observed across MPI, SGI and private DRP files are not technical capability gaps. They are documentation and write-up gaps that the industry data now makes harder to ignore.

• Calibration triggers identified post-repair rather than at write-up, forcing a supplement and a sublet scheduling delay.
• OEM procedure references attached as boilerplate rather than per-VIN, which fails the LVAA documentation standard and most DRP audits.
• Blend operations entered as labour notes rather than itemized line operations with the SCRS data referenced.
• Pre- and post-repair scan reports filed but not linked to the specific DTCs that triggered the calibration line items.
• Total loss candidates worked through teardown before pre-accident value confirmation, absorbing labour that the carrier will not reimburse on a TL outcome.
• Severity drift absorbed as 'just how it is' rather than tracked against the shop's own monthly benchmark.

7. How RocketPros aligns to the SCRS and industry data findings

RocketPros is not a replacement for MPI's LVAA, SGI's accreditation framework, ICBC's c.a.r. shop program, or any private DRP scorecard. The published carrier rule and the OEM position statement remain the source of truth. RocketPros runs alongside Mitchell Connect or CCC ONE and surfaces, at write-up, the signals that the 2025 industry data now makes mandatory to capture.

• Surfaces calibration triggers per VIN against the operations on the estimate, so the calibration line item is captured at write-up rather than at post-repair.
• Flags blend operations and prompts the estimator to reference SCRS Blend Study documentation where program rules permit itemization.
• Checks that pre- and post-repair scan documentation is linked to the DTCs that justify each calibration and not-included operation.
• Reports claim-level metrics back to the shop: supplement frequency, calibration capture rate, days to repair, and severity drift against the shop's own baseline.
• Highlights likely total loss candidates earlier in the file, so teardown labour is not absorbed on a vehicle that will not be repaired.

The framing is straightforward: the program rule is the rule. RocketPros makes compliance with that rule mechanical, which is exactly what the 2025 data shows shops need as complexity rises and volume falls.

8. The carrier and program-manager perspective

From the MPI, SGI, ICBC and private DRP program-management seat, the 2025 data reinforces a trend program managers have already been responding to: each claim file carries more procedural risk than it did three years ago. Calibration miss rates, supplement frequency, and total loss disposition timing are now leading indicators of program health. The carriers that publish severity and cycle time trends - MPI's annual reports, IBC's claims data, CCC Crash Course, and Mitchell Industry Trends - are aligned on the same picture.

Program managers benefit when shops surface calibration and OEM procedure requirements at write-up rather than at supplement. It compresses keys-to-keys days, reduces rental exposure, and produces a cleaner audit trail. The shops that perform best on 2026 scorecards will be the ones whose write-up discipline matches the complexity of the modern repair, not the simplicity of the legacy estimating database.

9. A 2026 planning framework for Canadian shops

1. 1Track your own monthly severity, supplement frequency, and calibration capture rate against the CCC and Mitchell published benchmarks. Without an internal baseline, the industry data is noise.
2. 2Treat calibration as a write-up decision. Build the OEM position statement lookup into the estimating workflow, not the QC step.
3. 3Document blend operations against the SCRS Blend Study findings on every applicable file, regardless of whether the current program rate reflects it.
4. 4Identify total loss candidates before teardown labour is invested. Pre-accident value and parts cost mix are the early signals.
5. 5Audit your own DRP and LVAA scorecards monthly. Carrier-reported metrics lag; internal metrics do not.
6. 6Use the 2025 data anchors - CCC, Mitchell, SCRS, IBC, Statistics Canada - in any rate or procedure conversation. The data is the leverage.

Frequently asked

Citations

1. [1]Auto Body News - 2025 Data Points to Fewer Claims, More Collision Repair Complexity in 2026.https://www.autobodynews.com/news/2025-data-points-to-fewer-claims-more-collision-repair-complexity-in-2026
2. [2]Society of Collision Repair Specialists (SCRS) - Repairer Roundtable updates, Blend Study findings, and industry research.https://scrs.com/
3. [3]Automotive Retailers Association of British Columbia - Coverage of the SCRS Blend Study and its implications for Canadian shops.https://ara.bc.ca/the-society-of-collision-repair-specialists-blend-study/
4. [4]CCC Intelligent Solutions - Crash Course Report - North American repairable severity, calibration frequency, and total loss benchmarks.https://cccis.com
5. [5]Mitchell International - Industry Trends Report, quarterly publication covering severity, calibration, and total loss data.https://www.mitchell.com
6. [6]Statistics Canada - Consumer Price Index, vehicle parts, maintenance and repairs (Table 18-10-0004-01).https://www150.statcan.gc.ca
7. [7]Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) - Industry claims data and severity trend reporting.https://www.ibc.ca
8. [8]Manitoba Public Insurance - Body Shop & Glass Information portal, including Light Vehicle Accreditation Agreement (LVAA) documentation.https://www.mpi.mb.ca/
9. [9]Saskatchewan Government Insurance (SGI) - Auto body and accreditation program portal.https://www.sgi.sk.ca/
10. [10]I-CAR Repairability Technical Support (RTS) - OEM position statements, calibration requirements, and not-included operations references.https://rts.i-car.com
11. [11]Repairer Driven News - Ongoing coverage of SCRS Repairer Roundtables, calibration data, and industry research.https://www.repairerdrivennews.com
12. [12]Fortune Business Insights - Automotive Collision Repair Market Report, 2025 sizing and trend data.https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/automotive-collision-repair-market-113701

What this looks like inside RocketPros

The audit logic, scoring, and documentation patterns in this paper map directly to four RocketPros modules. If you want this applied to your shop's real estimates, start with the module that fits the workflow you're trying to fix.

• RPS ComplianceTrack MPI, SGI, and DRP program risk before it affects scorecards.
• Estimate AnalysisCatch missed labor, materials, parts, and documentation gaps before submission.
• AutomationRead saved Mitchell, CCC, and Audatex files without manual upload.
• ADAS CalibrationSurface calibration triggers tied to sensors and OEM procedures.

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